Abstract The phenological response is among the most important traits affecting a species' sensitivity to climate. In insects, strongly seasonal environments often select for a univoltine life-cycle such that one seasonal extreme is avoided as an inactive stage. Through understanding the underlying mechanisms for univoltinism, and the consequences of its failure, we can better predict insect responses to climate change. Here we combine empirical data and simulation studies to investigate the consequences of an unusual diapause mechanism in a parthenogenetic matchstick grasshopper, Warramaba virgo, from arid southern Australia.
Abstract Mechanistic models of the impacts of climate change on insects can be seen as very specific hypotheses about the connections between microclimate, ecophysiology and vital rates. These models must adequately capture stage-specific responses, carry-over effects between successive stages, and the evolutionary potential of the functional traits involved in complex insect life-cycles. Here we highlight key considerations for current approaches to mechanistic modelling of insect responses to climate change. We illustrate these considerations within a general mechanistic framework incorporating the thermodynamic linkages between microclimate and heat, water and nutrient exchange throughout the life-cycle under different climate scenarios.